Projecting Average

Projecting a player's ability to hit for average can be difficult at times.  The task becomes harder when you're watching a swing, trying to figure out how exactly it will relate against the type of pitching a player will see at your level.  If you're a college coach in the PAC 10, SEC, Big 12, Big 10 etc. you have less of an opportunity to see potential players compete against pitching of that caliber.

When I became involved in scouting a term that I heard a lot was "hitters instincts."  It became highly  important for me to define this term, not only for myself, but for others as well since I have become relied upon by so many others to help evaluate hitters.  I don't believe in the notion of "You'll know it when you see it", because not all of us think that way.  I also believe this helps the process because coaches can't only rate players at a high hitting ability, only when they see a player go 3-4 with a double and an opposite field jack.  They have to be able to identify the things that will allow a player to hit elite pitching, even when a player is having a bad day.

Here are 5 of the most basic concepts in identifying a players ability to hit for average.  We can obviously take this ability much more in depth, but I use these 5-Instincts to filter out players ability to hit at the highest level.

Staying in Rhythm

Scouts often talk about an effortless swing.  Many of you have heard me speak about  my theory that hitting coaches are MADE on their ability to teach the transitions of the swing.  A player that moves roughly from position to position in the swing is much less consistent than a player that flows through each important position by having smooth transitions that eventually add up in the hitting zone.  When I evaluate hitters I like to see an ease of motion which is represented by constant, flowing motion up until contact (See "Moment of Silence" below).  What a hitter does after contact or just before, in regards to rhythm, isn't of great importance to me.  Hitters that get in the flow of the at-bat with rhythm are usually in rhythm and in the flow because of a consistent approach.  Seeing a hitter in rhythm shows me that the hitter has a plan and when the pitch agrees with their plan, they have a great chance to square it up with bat speed.

On-Time Swings

Timing for elite hitters is usually less challenging than other parts of the swing.  In evaluating hitters, I can't rate a hitter very high if she consistently can't make on-time swings.  Timing is a broad range concept.  .300 hitters in college softball live in the gaps, .400 hitters spray it foul line to foul line.  If I see a hitter get jammed on a screw ball and then hit a curve ball off the cap of the bat, then timing is a huge issue.  In softball, reading inside/outside is much easier than reading high/low (see http://www.softballhittingonline.com/ - backdropping).  If a hitter struggles in making on-time swings, then arsenal of pitches they'll see in college will make them "guess only" hitters.

Early Bat Speed

Quite simply, the later the bat head starts (given it will get to the ball on-time) the better.  The more information we're able to obtain about the incoming pitching before a decision is made, the better chance we have to predict the pitches destination.  Hitters that are able to maintain maximum separation until the time a decision has to be made will have more initial bat speed, which will 1.) Allow them to wait longer to pull the trigger and 2.) Be in a position to generate bat speed, compared to a hitters that drifts to their slot who is trying to restrict their motion because of said drift.  The way I see this in hitters is watching the action of the bat head.  When a hitters hands react, what happens to the bat?  Can you see the whip start?  Is it a sudden change of direction? Does the back elbow move, but not bat motion?

Lag Above the Ball

Not all swings can happen in rhythm, that's just the nature of the sport.  Pitchers try to get hitters off balance and out of rhythm because they have success when they do.  When a hitter is able to get to the Bat Lag position, with the barrel safely higher than the path of the incoming pitch, then a hitter has a chance on every ball that they see.  Lexi Bennett from the University of Texas is a hitter that can get off balance and out of rhythm, but almost always gets to Bat Lag above the ball.  This effects her power rating, but her ability to hit for average will always be there because of this instinct.

The Moment of Silence

I use the term "Moment of Silence" in the swing to refer to the moment when the bat head enters the hitting zone, until it leaves.  The top hitters in the game will have extraordinary movement up until this moment with their entire body, but for hitters to 1.) Allow the proper flow of energy to reach the bat head and 2.) Keep the bat head on plane and on path during the hitting zone, a "Moment of Silence" has to occur.  This simply means that hip rotation, torso rotation and shoulder rotation must STOP in the hitting zone.  A hitter that doesn't get their body to the point of full rotation on the pitch they chose to swing at, is most likely not athletic enough to square the ball up consistently.  Hitter's that reach full rotation, will achieve this moment of silence which allows the bat head to accelerate because the kinetic chain is working and keep it on plane and on path, due to the uninterrupted path the hands can take now that the body is not working to pull the barrel off path.  If we're talking about projecting power, we would want to talk about what the body does to show us this silence is happening with maximum force.  You can see actions in a hitters front foot and shin that clearly show maximum force, but that's about hitting for power.  If a hitter can't stop, it's because they are not in sequence to begin with, which makes hitting for average too difficult to being with and they'll rate lower.

This Season

This season I encourage you to watch players that you face.  The players that can end the game with one swing of the bat; how do these 5 habits differ from the players that you attack in the strike zone?  I hope that you can see these instincts and that this helps you identify impact players for your program on the recruiting trail this summer.  These are basic concepts but they will help you quickly filter and process player's in a short amount of time.

Mark Mulvany